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MattsonJack's Market Modeling and Forecasting consultants focus on helping clients better understand their market, which, in turn, supports better decision-making.

The pharmaceutical industry represents a dynamic yet fluctuating market that is challenging to analyze and predict from a technical standpoint. Markets for pharmaceutical products can be very complex, and mining data for critical and relevant business information is increasingly important to support quality business decisions within pharmaceutical companies. Significant competitive advantage goes to those companies able to filter through the mountains of data to uncover key market insights.

The market drivers are diverse, ranging from government regulations to the introduction of drugs or diagnostics that influence the course of diseases.

Market drivers include:

• Patient populations that are increasingly segmented and diverse
• Products that are used for multiple indications, on- and off-label
• A reimbursement environment that is constantly changing
• Promotional influences
• Changing government regulations, especially MMA
• Evolution of diagnosis rates, treatment rates, and disease comorbidity

Adding to the complexity is a growing array of data options: epidemiology data, product sales data, longitudinal patient data, clinical data, etc. Proper analysis enables an understanding of historical market drivers and helps predict future market evolution.

Experience and Expertise

MattsonJack has developed rigorous quantitative methods for handling the impact of future events that enable the ready translation of market research results into model outputs. Corresponding to this rigor, each member of MattsonJack’s Market Modeling and Forecasting practice specialty has a diverse range of expertise, including strong analytical and quantitative skills, to provide the following key specialized services to the pharmaceutical and biotech industries:

• Patient-based forecasting
• Custom epidemiology and comorbidity analysis
• Patient mapping and patient flow analysis

MattsonJack’s modeling approach incorporates and reconciles epidemiology data, sales data, time series analysis, and the impact of future events. In areas where a thorough understanding of the patient population is critical, historical data is converted to patient equivalents and reconciled with epidemiology data to derive treatment rates and market shares.

The analysis includes and goes beyond a simple trending of Rx, sales, or unit volume. MattsonJack’s comprehensive modeling approach allows us to incorporate the impact of changes in diagnosis and treatment rates, new product launches, and market expansion. The result is a user-friendly forecast in an Excel-based format with flexibility to be updated with new data, alter assumptions, and include or exclude future events. This methodology is also the foundation of Forecast Architect®, a proprietary software program with standardized templates ("blueprints") for forecasting and modeling.

Custom Epidemiology and Comorbid Analysis

In conjunction with MattsonJack’s Epidemiology team, Modeling and Forecasting consultants can provide unique epidemiological analysis of complex diseases using sophisticated analytical methods. We have significant experience in analyzing and segmenting, using mathematically rigorous techniques, across comorbid conditions in many therapeutic areas.

This in-depth analysis considers many factors that affect the incidence / prevalence of a disease, including patient demographics and the impact of changes in survival. Also, with the advent of targeted therapies and the increasing importance of niche marketing, comorbidity analysis can affect the prioritization of indications for drugs used to treat multiple conditions. Again, these analyses can be delivered as an epidemiological Excel-based model with assumptions that can change or be updated with new information.

Patient Flow Modeling

MattsonJack can provide detailed modeling in areas where therapeutic history of patients and survival characteristics are key market drivers, for example, in areas such as oncology and HIV. This method is ideal for indications for which a treatment tree can be applied. Other examples include therapeutic areas that involve several lines of therapy and diseases that involve different drug courses based on severity of disease.

Patient flow models can be used to assess future patient segments in shifting patient populations and changes in treatment regimens. A patient flow model begins with population data to which an age-specific incidence curve is applied, thus creating our prevalence. Partitioning of patients into first-line therapy and progressing them through multiple lines of therapy is modeled, applying assumptions for treatment allocation and rates of progression through the various therapies.

Because MattsonJack modelers and forecasters populate the disease with patients by year of onset as well as age, MattsonJack’s methods can mathematically determine the survival rates of an average person with the disease and accurately keep track of surviving patients. Of course, this survival can be modified based on disease-specific survival. Because incidence, treatment regimen, and survival data can be dynamic, MattsonJack’s forecasts are able to altered as these new data are provided.

MattsonJack’s consultants, tools and advanced modeling methodologies are harnessed to supply forecasting data as defendable business intelligence for our clients.

For more information on MattsonJack's Forecasting and Modeling expertise, phone (314) 469-7600 or e-mail info@mattsonjack.com.